election selection corrections

Basically turnout was high and Diane Abbott’s vote increased massively. Plus the Greens did much worse than I expected, and I overestimated the prospects for the Indepedents.

There’s has been some consternation about a few hundred people getting locked out of polling stations last night. Whilst that’s unfortunate it’s unlikely to have made much of a difference to the big picture.

My career as a pollster has not got off to a great start, but I couldn’t find any other git who was prepared to put their money where their mouth was and come up with actual numerical predictions. I wasn’t a mile off but I’m glad I’m not a betting man…

Those results in full:

Candidate / Party / Actual Votes / uncarved.org prediction

Diane Abbott (Labour) 25,553 (13,000)
Keith Angus (LIb Dem) 11,092 (8,006)
Darren Caplan (Conservative) 6,759 (4,000)
Matt Sellwood (Green Party) 2,133 (7,846)

Suzanne Moore (Ind) 258 (976)
Maxine Hargreaves (The Christian Party) 299 (777)
Alessandra Williams (Ind) 61 (213)
Knigel Knapp (Monster Raving Loony Party) 182 (236)
Paul Shaer (Ind) 96 (29)
Dr Jack Pope-De-Locksley (Magna Carta Party) 26 (66)

actual percentage / uncarved.org percentage

Diane Abbott 54.9 (37)
Keith Angus 23.9 (22.8)
Darren Caplan 14.6 (11.4)
Matt Sellwood 4.6 (22.3)

Maxine Hargreaves 0.6 (2.2)
Suzanne Moore 0.6 (2.8)
Knigel Knapp 0.4 (0.7)
Paul Shaer 0.2 (0.1)
Alessandra Williams 0.1 (0.6)
Dr Jack Pope-de-Locksley 0.1 (0.2)

In other news, Jack Pope-de-Locksley is in the Hackney Gazette this week strongly disavowing any nazi tendencies. Not that this seems to have had any bearing on his vote.

One Comment

  1. The Greens did badly nationally. i think they had huge focus on Caroline Lucas’ campaign, plus there were a lot of Greens voting tactically anti-tory.

    The BNP’s Barking result is something to cheer, though. For their intense campaigning their vote share went *down*!

    It seems there’s a ceiling to the share a fascist party can get in Britain. As soon as they become a challenger in a place, people vote heavily against them.

    with Griffin’s plan it tatters, they’re ripe to tear themselves apart with in-fighting and leadership struggles, which is another tradition of British fascist parties.

    And look at this and feel warm inside:


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