{"id":3505,"date":"2010-05-07T15:38:18","date_gmt":"2010-05-07T14:38:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/?p=3505"},"modified":"2010-05-07T15:38:18","modified_gmt":"2010-05-07T14:38:18","slug":"election-selection-corrections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/2010\/05\/election-selection-corrections\/","title":{"rendered":"election selection corrections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.soane.org\/election.htm#polling\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/jsw_polling.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"polling\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3512\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Basically turnout was high and Diane Abbott&#8217;s vote increased massively. Plus the Greens did much worse than I expected, and I overestimated the prospects for the Indepedents.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s has been some consternation about a few hundred people getting locked out of polling stations last night. Whilst that&#8217;s unfortunate it&#8217;s unlikely to have made much of a difference to the big picture.<\/p>\n<p>My career as a pollster has not got off to a great start, but I couldn&#8217;t find any other git who was prepared to put their money where their mouth was and come up with actual numerical predictions. I wasn&#8217;t a mile off but I&#8217;m glad I&#8217;m not a betting man&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Those results in full:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Candidate \/ Party \/ Actual Votes \/ uncarved.org prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Diane Abbott (Labour) 25,553 (13,000)<br \/>\nKeith Angus (LIb Dem) 11,092 (8,006)<br \/>\nDarren Caplan (Conservative) 6,759 (4,000)<br \/>\nMatt Sellwood (Green Party) 2,133 (7,846)<\/p>\n<p>Suzanne Moore (Ind) 258  (976)<br \/>\nMaxine Hargreaves (The Christian Party) 299 (777)<br \/>\nAlessandra Williams (Ind) 61 (213)<br \/>\nKnigel Knapp (Monster Raving Loony Party) 182 (236)<br \/>\nPaul Shaer (Ind) 96 (29)<br \/>\nDr Jack Pope-De-Locksley (Magna Carta Party) 26 (66) <\/p>\n<p><strong>actual percentage \/ uncarved.org percentage<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Diane Abbott 54.9 (37)<br \/>\nKeith Angus 23.9 (22.8)<br \/>\nDarren Caplan 14.6 (11.4)<br \/>\nMatt Sellwood 4.6 (22.3)<\/p>\n<p>Maxine Hargreaves 0.6 (2.2)<br \/>\nSuzanne Moore 0.6 (2.8)<br \/>\nKnigel Knapp 0.4 (0.7)<br \/>\nPaul Shaer 0.2 (0.1)<br \/>\nAlessandra Williams 0.1 (0.6)<br \/>\nDr Jack Pope-de-Locksley 0.1 (0.2)<\/p>\n<p>In other news, Jack Pope-de-Locksley is in the <em>Hackney Gazette <\/em>this week strongly disavowing any nazi tendencies. Not that this seems to have had any bearing on his vote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Basically turnout was high and Diane Abbott&#8217;s vote increased massively. Plus the Greens did much worse than I expected, and I overestimated the prospects for the Indepedents. There&#8217;s has been some consternation about a few hundred people getting locked out of polling stations last night. Whilst that&#8217;s unfortunate it&#8217;s unlikely to have made much of &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/2010\/05\/election-selection-corrections\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading &lsquo;election selection corrections&rsquo; &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hackney-london","category-politricks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uncarved.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}